By National Research Council, Division on Earth and Life Studies, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Committee on Estimating and Communicating Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Forecasts
Uncertainty is a primary attribute of climate, seasonal weather, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is whole and not using a description of its uncertainty. powerful verbal exchange of uncertainty is helping humans larger comprehend the chance of a specific occasion and improves their skill to make judgements in line with the forecast. still, for many years, clients of those forecasts were conditioned to obtain incomplete information regarding uncertainty. they've got turn into used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the extreme temperature could be 70 levels Farenheit nine days from now") and utilized their very own adventure in selecting how a lot self assurance to put within the forecast. so much forecast items from the private and non-private sectors, together with these from the nationwide Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration’s nationwide climate provider, proceed this deterministic legacy. thankfully, the nationwide climate carrier and others within the prediction neighborhood have famous the necessity to view uncertainty as a primary a part of forecasts. by way of partnering with different segments of the neighborhood to appreciate consumer wishes, generate proper and wealthy informational items, and make the most of potent communique cars, the nationwide climate provider can take a number one position within the transition to common, potent incorporation of uncertainty info into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes concepts to the nationwide climate provider and the wider prediction neighborhood on the best way to make this transition.
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Extra resources for Completing the Forecast: Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts
In addition, those disseminating information must understand and communicate the accuracy of the forecast and the potential consequences. , national guard, evacuation vehicles, communication methods, financial support services). The affected public needs to decide whether and how to act based on an evaluation of their situation, the emergency manager directive, and their access to the services. As to the communication aspect, care is needed when comparing an ongoing event to one that occurred earlier.
Parents who research the side effects of the DTaP vaccine on the National Immunization Program Web site will find that up to 1 child out of 1,000 will suffer from high fever and about 1 child out of 14,000 will suffer from seizures as a result of immunization. Although doctors have these same statistics at their disposal, they also have access to other information not easily available to parents—namely, the personal experience, gathered across many patients, that vaccination rarely results in side effects.
In the domain of losses, on the other hand, people tend to be risk-seeking. Most would prefer to take their chances at a 50/50 gamble of losing $200 or nothing, rather than being certain of losing $100. Risk seeking is a label that describes the convex loss part of the utility function which predicts that a decision maker will prefer a 50/50 gamble of losing $20 or nothing to losing $10 for sure. 4), a widely observed phenomenon that has been called loss aversion. The existence of loss aversion and of different risk attitudes for perceived gains versus perceived losses mean that one can influence which option a decision maker selects by modifying the reference point used to evaluate the outcomes of the decision.
Completing the Forecast: Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts by National Research Council, Division on Earth and Life Studies, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Committee on Estimating and Communicating Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Forecasts